The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve
after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming
quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a
couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and
measured a peak flightlevel wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated
minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the
northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located.
Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100kt initial intensity is
supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak
estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON, which peaked near that value. Over
the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is
underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery,
and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner eyewall.

Video Chapters:
0:00 Rafael Makes Landfall
2:26 Recon Finds Rafael Stronger
3:57 Where Is Rafael Heded?
10:30 Latest NHC Outlook
13:57 Spaghetti Plots
16:09 Outro/Promotion

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